20c vs System Design:
What Actually Drives High
Return Rates.
The world's highest-performing deposit return systems don't succeed because they pay more. They succeed because they're built better. Understanding the difference is the key to unlocking Australia's recycling potential — without burdening consumers with higher prices.
The Analogy That Explains Everything
Doubling Australia's deposit without fixing the system design is like giving someone a heater in winter — without electricity. The intent is good. But if the system isn't built to convert that intent into effortless, routine behaviour, the outcome doesn't change.
98%
Germany — same deposit signal, retail-integrated system
92%
Lithuania — same 10c deposit as Australia, retail-integrated
57%
Australia true consumer return rate (excl. MRF recovery)
19×
Germany's return-point density advantage over Australia
Why Germany hits 98% — It's not the deposit
135,000 return points — in supermarkets, grocery stores & retailers nationwide. 1 point per 620 people.
Every store over 200m² is legally required to take back what it sells. You return containers where you shop — no separate trip, no planning, no storage. Greater convenience is the key, not 20c.
Australia
~2,200
return points
Germany
135,000
return points
Australia's journey to 85%+ now requires pioneering a path no other nation has taken. Having missed the opportunity for large-scale retail infrastructure, our success hinges on activating behaviour and incentives — a strategy to transform existing systems without burdening consumers.
"Higher deposits drive
higher return rates."
This is incomplete.
The world's best-performing systems do not succeed because they simply pay more. They succeed because they built systems that are easier to use, more visible, more consistent, and deeply embedded into everyday behaviour.
Australia has focused heavily on the deposit signal. It has not matched the system design. That gap — not the refund amount — is the real reason Australia sits at 57% while Germany sits at 98%.
What high-performing countries share
- National system — one name, one experience, one operator
- Return-to-retail — containers go back where they were bought
- High-density access — 1 point per 600–900 people
- Low friction — no separate trip, no storage required
- Strong public visibility — the behaviour is seen daily
- Repeated behavioural reinforcement through use
- Clear understanding: 'I bought it here. I return it here. I get my money back.'
TOMRA research (2024): Return-to-retail systems achieve a median return rate of 89% — vs just 69% in systems without retail involvement. The 20-point gap is entirely explained by system design, not deposit value.
Reloop Platform / TOMRA Research, 2024What 90%+ Looks Like. And Why.
Four countries. Four world-class return rates. One common thread — none of them achieved it by simply raising the deposit.
Germany
Return-to-Retail (Mandatory)98%
return rate
Deposit
25c (EUR)
Access Density
1 per 620 people
Every store 200m²+ must accept returns for what it sells. Returning containers is part of the shopping trip.
Lithuania
Return-to-Retail (Supermarket-Integrated)92%
return rate
Deposit
10c (EUR) — same as Australia
Access Density
1 per ~870 people
Hit 74% in year one, 92% by year two — with the SAME 10c deposit value Australia uses.
- RVMs at supermarket entrances — returning is part of the shopping trip
- Single national operator (USAD) — one system, one experience
- Exceeded 90% within 24 months of launch
Norway
Return-to-Retail92–95%
return rate
Deposit
Variable (NOK)
Access Density
High — retail-integrated
Returning containers is embedded into every supermarket visit across the country.
Finland
Retail-Integrated National System90–95%+
return rate
Deposit
10–40c scaled by size
Access Density
~17,000 points for 5.5M people
Returning containers is a behaviour learned from childhood. One national system. One consistent experience.
Western Australia vs Lithuania:
Same Starting Point. Completely Different Outcome.
This comparison removes all the usual variables. Same population size. Same deposit value. Same ~34% starting rate. What remains is system design — and it explains everything.
The Conclusion the Data Forces
Western Australia and Lithuania started with the same population scale, the same deposit value, and the same ~34% baseline return rate.
Lithuania built a dense, retail-integrated national system and exceeded 92% within two years.
Western Australia built a lower-density, depot-based system and, after more than five years, is still operating at roughly 57% true consumer return behaviour.
This is clearly a system design difference — not a deposit problem.
Australia's 6 Systemic Flaws —
None of Which a Higher Deposit Fixes
The 20c argument correctly identifies that Australia's return rates are too low. It incorrectly diagnoses the cause. Here are the real barriers — and why doubling the deposit leaves all of them intact. Click each to see why 20c doesn't address it.
Australia vs The World:
The Structural Gap, Measured
The infrastructure reality: Matching Germany's access density would require building approximately 60,000+ new return points across Australia. Matching Lithuania's retail integration would require national legislation mandating supermarket participation. Both are possible — but both are multi-year, multi-billion dollar projects. The faster path is behaviour change within the system that already exists.
"20 Cents Makes Sense" —
The Campaign, The Backers, The Context
Launched March 2026 at 20centsmakessense.com.au. The campaign has genuine environmental intent and strong industry backing — understanding who's involved helps frame the conversation.
Their Two Asks
Increase the refund from 10¢ to 20¢ across all state and territory schemes.
Commit to regular, inflation-linked reviews of the refund amount going forward.
Already Running Into Walls
QLD government formally rejected 20c — citing cost-of-living
SMH, Mar 2026 ↗Coca-Cola indicated it would reassess its involvement in the Queensland scheme
ABC News, Apr 2026 ↗Lion Australia warned costs will flow through to consumers
ABC News, Apr 2026 ↗Key Organisations Behind the Campaign
Australia's peak circular economy non-profit. 16+ years running Cash for Containers. The primary political lobbying engine behind the push. Led by Jeff Angel (Director) and Dave West (National Policy Director).
Manufactures plastic packaging and recycled plastics. A strong supporter of circular economy outcomes and increased container recovery across Australia.
World's leading provider of reverse vending technology. Deeply invested in improving return rates and system performance across Australia.
The opportunity: Every major backer of this campaign shares the same core goal — more containers returned, cleaner outcomes, a stronger circular economy. The 10c Recycling Games delivers exactly that, faster and without the legislative and cost barriers the 20c path faces. These organisations are natural allies.
We Share Your Goal.
The Evidence Points to a Better Path.
The organisations pushing for 20c are not wrong to want better outcomes. Their environmental instinct is exactly right. This analysis is not a rebuttal of that mission — it is evidence that the mission can be achieved faster, more cheaply, and without burdening consumers, through a different approach.
Genuine environmental advocates seeking to improve return rates
We share your goal completely. The 20c argument identifies real problems — inflation erosion, participation gaps, scheme underperformance. Our position isn't against raising the incentive; it's about what actually produces the outcomes you're fighting for.
Using international evidence to make the case for change
The European evidence is exactly right — but it proves the opposite of what the 20c argument claims. Germany and Lithuania don't outperform Australia because of a higher deposit. They outperform because of better system design. That's the insight that changes everything.
Wanting a more effective national recycling system
A more effective national recycling system is exactly what we're building. The 10c Recycling Games activates existing infrastructure with behavioural science — no cost to manufacturers, no price pain for consumers, no relabelling, no scheme restructuring. It's the fastest path to the outcome you want.
The Shared Goal: 85%+ Return Rates Nationally
Every organisation in this conversation wants the same thing: more containers returned, less waste, a better system. The question is not whether to improve — it's how to get there fastest, most effectively, and without creating new burdens.
High-performing countries prove that system design beats deposit value every time. Australia can unlock that same performance — not by waiting years for infrastructure reform and paying billions to double the deposit, but by activating behaviour within the system we already have.
Infrastructure Takes Years.
Behaviour Change Can Happen Now.
Australia already has ~$1.2 billion in annual refunds, ~2,200 return points, and an existing CDS framework. What's missing is not the infrastructure or the deposit amount. It's consistent, motivated behaviour at scale. That's exactly what the 10c Recycling Games delivers.
What 20c delivers — and doesn't fix
- Stronger financial incentive for existing participants
- Fixes low access density (still 1 per 12,000 people)
- Introduces retail integration (separate trip still required)
- Unifies the fragmented national system
- Eliminates storage friction or 'it's not worth the effort'
- Avoids consumer price increases at the checkout
- Avoids industry relabelling and compliance costs
- Creates repeat engagement — the novelty boost is one-time
What the 10c Recycling Games delivers
- Activates existing CDS infrastructure with zero new machines required
- Applies proven variable-reward psychology — the same mechanics that drive Germany's 98% rate, but through behaviour, not infrastructure
- Transforms every 10c return into points, prize entries, and cause funding
- Social leaderboards, team challenges, and charity alignment create community identity around recycling
- Self-funded by container returns — no government subsidy, no consumer price increase
- Operates within all existing CDS frameworks — coordinator configuration, not legislation
Australia's Largest Ever Social & Environmental Impact Experiment
Return for a Cause — the gamified version of the CDS
High-performing countries solved the participation problem through infrastructure. Australia's fastest path is through behaviour — and no country has ever launched a national behaviour change experiment at this scale.
The 10c Recycling Games is Australia's largest ever social and environmental impact experiment. It doesn't wait for retail mandates or infrastructure rebuild. It activates the existing $1.2B refund pool right now — giving every Australian a reason to return containers consistently, not occasionally.
Occasional batch returns
Consistent weekly habit
10c linear micro-payment
Points + prizes + cause + community
Low scheme visibility
Social leaderboards + prize draws
'It's not worth the trip'
'Every container gives me value, impact and a chance to win'
The Final Position
The 20c argument is right about
the problem. Wrong about the fix.
High-performing countries built systems that make returning containers effortless, visible, and routine. Australia built a system that works, but requires effort.
The 20c argument identifies one part of the problem — that the current incentive alone isn't compelling enough. It is absolutely right about that.
But it misattributes the cause. The failure isn't the size of the number. It's the system around the number: the fragmentation, the friction, the lack of retail integration, the weak habit architecture.
Doubling the refund without fixing access density, retail integration, national fragmentation, consumer education, and behavioural motivation would be an incomplete and expensive response — one that burdens consumers, enriches MRF operators, doubles fraud incentives, and defers the same behavioural problem by a decade.
Rebuilding infrastructure to match Germany or Lithuania will take years. Behaviour change can happen now.
The 10c Recycling Games is the fastest path to Australia's 85% target — by activating behaviour within the system we already have, using proven science, at zero cost to consumers.
Ready to Back the Fastest Path to 85%?
If you're an advocate for better recycling outcomes in Australia, we'd love to work with you. The 10c Recycling Games needs coalition partners — organisations who understand the real problem and are ready to back the most effective solution.
Sources & References
All data points are drawn from the following published sources.
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