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National CDS Performance Audit — Evidence-Based Analysis

State-by-State CDS
Performance Audit

A comprehensive, evidence-based audit of all eight Australian Container Deposit Schemes — coordinator performance, strategic plans, target achievement, and the gaps that behavioural intervention can close.

8

Schemes audited

67%

National avg. return rate

1/8

At 85% target

18%

Gap to target (national)

Audit Methodology: This audit draws on each coordinator's published annual reports, strategic plans, government regulatory publications, parliamentary inquiry findings, and independent reviews (e.g. Boomerang Alliance). Data is presented in good faith and cross-referenced wherever possible. It is not intended as a critical assessment of coordinators — all are working within the constraints of their respective frameworks. The purpose is to identify where the system as a whole is falling short of legislated targets, and what additional intervention is needed.

National Performance at a Glance

~12.1B

Total eligible containers p.a.

Across all 8 jurisdictions

~$776.4M

Annual refund pool (current rates)

At current return rates

~2.52B

Containers needed to hit 85%

The scale of the behavioural gap

~$252.4M

Additional refund value to unlock

Currently unclaimed per year

All 8 Schemes — Ranked by Return Rate

Click any scheme to view the full audit report

At TargetBelow TargetStalledEarly Stage
NT

Northern Territory

NT Container Deposit Scheme

88%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
Target Achieved — National Model

Launched

January 2012

Above target by

+3.0%

Eligible p.a.

~118M

Refund Points

33

The NT is Australia's proof of concept. It inherited a 34% baseline from existing kerbside MRF collection and achieved rapid early growth — capturing an additional 31% in the first year (34% → 65%), then 54% by 2018 (34% → 78%), and finally reaching 88% by FY25. The 14-year trajectory demonstrates sustained, compounding behavioral change across Australia's most geographically challenging environment with significant remote and Indigenous communities. Operating across multiple private coordinators, the NT is the only jurisdiction above the 85% target. This is not a one-time infrastructure lift — it is proof that sustained engagement mechanisms, embedded in community routines over time, can achieve and exceed the national target.

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Full Report
SA

South Australia

Container Deposit Scheme (CDS)

75%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
Mature Scheme — Declining from Peak

Launched

1 September 1977

Gap to 85%

-10.0%

Eligible p.a.

~880M

Refund Points

132

South Australia's CDS is Australia's longest-running scheme — 49 years of operation since 1977 — and the model that inspired every other Australian jurisdiction. Only British Columbia (1970) and Oregon (1971) predate it globally. SA achieved a remarkable 33-point growth in just 8 years (1977: 45% → 1985: 78%) through rapid habit formation. Yet at 75%, it sits 10 points below its own target and has declined from a historical peak of 79% (1990). With no centralised coordinator, no digital engagement tools, and no fresh incentive layer, SA's scheme relies entirely on community habit — and those habits are slowly eroding. The 49-year foundation of participation proves the concept; the decline proves that awareness and infrastructure alone cannot sustain engagement indefinitely.

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Full Report
ACT

Australian Capital Territory

ACT Container Deposit Scheme

69%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
Above Average — Still Below Target

Launched

June 2018

Gap to 85%

-16.0%

Eligible p.a.

~158M

Refund Points

22

Exchange for Change inherited a 9% baseline from existing kerbside MRF collection in the ACT and achieved rapid early growth — capturing an additional 49% in the first year (9% → 58%), then 60% by FY23 (9% → 69%). The 'easy wins' of infrastructure-responsive returners have been captured. The ACT performs above the national average at 69% and has an unusually environmentally engaged population — the highest-education, most-climate-conscious demographic in Australia. Yet it remains 16 points below the 85% target after 7 years. Shared governance under the NSW-centric Exchange for Change means ACT-specific behavioral drivers are not fully explored. With a compact geography and motivated community, the ACT should be leading the nation — not following NSW.

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Full Report
NSW

New South Wales

Return and Earn

68%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
Plateaued — Below Target

Launched

December 2017

Gap to 85%

-17.0%

Eligible p.a.

~3.24B

Refund Points

667

Exchange for Change inherited a 13% baseline from existing kerbside MRF collection and built Australia's largest CDS by population reach with rapid early growth — capturing an additional 39% in the first year (13% → 52%), then 55% by FY20 (13% → 68%). These were the 'easy wins': consumers who would return containers with access. But the scheme has stalled at 68% for the past 3+ years (FY22–FY25). Despite processing 15.4 billion containers and achieving 83% adult participation, the recovery rate has plateaued. The NSW EPA's own statutory review (Nov 2025) confirmed the gap persists — infrastructure is complete, but behavioural engagement has hit a ceiling. The 10c refund alone is no longer sufficient to drive the remaining 32% of non-returners.

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Full Report
QLD

Queensland

Containers for Change

67%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
Plateaued — Below Target
Parliamentary Inquiry — Oct 2025

Launched

November 2018

Gap to 85%

-18.0%

Eligible p.a.

~3.28B

Refund Points

411

COEX inherited a 18% baseline from existing kerbside MRF collection and built one of Australia's most innovative CDS networks including home collection and the nation's first wine/spirit bottle scheme, with rapid early growth — capturing an additional 37% in just 7 months (18% → 55%), then 49% by FY23 (18% → 67%). These were the 'easy wins': consumers who would return containers with access. But the scheme has stalled at 67.1% for the past two years (FY24–FY25). Despite the 2025 Parliamentary Inquiry confirming the infrastructure and model are sound, no behavioural mechanism exists to reach the remaining 33% of non-returners. Innovation in collection methods is excellent, but behavioural engagement has hit a ceiling.

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Full Report
WA

Western Australia

Containers for Change

65.6%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
Plateaued — Below Target

Launched

1 October 2020

Gap to 85%

-19.4%

Eligible p.a.

~1.55B

Refund Points

303

WARRRL inherited a 34% baseline from existing kerbside MRF collection and built a strong, innovative scheme with rapid early growth — capturing an additional 18% in just 7 months (34% → 52%), then 30% by FY23 (34% → 63.8%). These were the 'easy wins': consumers who would return containers with access. But the scheme has stalled at 65% for two consecutive years (FY24–FY25). Despite the 2025–2027 Strategic Plan and clear identification of 'out of home' container recovery (~400M containers/year) as the critical gap, no behavioural mechanism exists to reach the remaining 35% of non-returners. Infrastructure is excellent, but behavioural engagement has hit a ceiling.

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Full Report
VIC

Victoria

CDS Vic

62%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
Early Stage — Rapid Acceleration Phase

Launched

November 2023

Gap to 85%

-23.0%

Eligible p.a.

~3.0B

Refund Points

600

VicReturn inherited an 8% baseline from existing kerbside MRF collection and deployed world-class infrastructure from day one. CDS Vic launched in November 2023 and is accelerating rapidly: 30% (FY24) → 57% (Q1 FY25, 49% jump) → 54% (Q2 winter dip) → 70% (Q3) → 69% (Q4) = 62% FY25 average. The quarterly trajectory shows habit formation is working — Q3-Q4 reached 70%, suggesting current FY26 is tracking at or above 70%. These are the 'easy wins': infrastructure-responsive returners are being captured at unprecedented pace. The critical question is whether Victoria can sustain momentum and convert the remaining 15% through behavioral engagement.

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Full Report
TAS

Tasmania

Recycle Rewards

52%

return rate

85% target
0%100%
New Scheme — Critical Launch Window

Launched

1 May 2025

Gap to 85%

-33.0%

Eligible p.a.

~192M

Refund Points

43

TasRecycle inherited a 6% baseline from existing kerbside MRF collection and launched Recycle Rewards on 1 May 2025, achieving a 52% redemption rate in Year 1 — the highest first-year rate of any new Australian CDS, representing a remarkable 46% jump. Habits are actively forming, and the scheme is still growing its refund point network toward full deployment. This is the most critical window in a scheme's lifecycle: the initial 12 months of habit formation will determine trajectory for years. Tasmania is uniquely positioned — rapid infrastructure deployment + engaged community + zero incumbent scheme inertia. If The 10c Recycling Games activates alongside Recycle Rewards now during this habit-formation window, Tasmania could become the first state to break 85% — and prove the concept for the nation.

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Full Report
Queensland Parliamentary Inquiry — October 2025

Queensland Parliamentary Inquiry Findings:
Infrastructure Without Behaviour Change Has Limits.

In October 2025, Queensland's Parliament tabled a 200+ page report into its own container refund scheme. The inquiry findings highlight structural limitations in the current approach — limitations that the 10c Recycling Games is designed to address.

200+

Page report

Tabled 16 Oct 2025

21

Recommendations

17 supported by Govt

10

CCC referrals

Alleged misconduct

67.1%

Recovery rate FY25

vs. 85% legislated target

The Inquiry's Finding: Behaviour Change Mechanisms Were Not Included in Scheme Design

The Queensland Parliamentary Inquiry found that after 7 years of operation, with 11 billion containers returned, $2.5 billion in revenue generated, and 411 refund points deployed — the scheme remains 18 percentage points below its legislated target. The committee's 21 recommendations address governance, transparency, and accountability. The recommendations do not include behavioural engagement mechanisms such as gamification, community competition, or layered incentives. This represents an opportunity for complementary approaches like The 10c Recycling Games.

Key Findings — What the Inquiry Actually Said

85% Target: Unmet — Seven Years Running

The inquiry's primary finding: COEX has never once achieved the legislated 85% container recovery rate. Despite growing from 18% at launch (2018) to 67.1% (FY25), the scheme plateaued 18% below the statutory floor. The committee found the scheme's structure provided no enforceable mechanism to close this gap.

QLD Parliamentary Inquiry Report No. 14, October 2025 — Terms of Reference 2(a)

$2.5 Billion Generated — Less Than 40% Returned to Queenslanders

Since inception, the scheme generated $2.5 billion in revenue. Less than 40% was returned to Queenslanders via refunds. Less than 2% went to charities. The inquiry found that COEX held substantial retained earnings — and that these surpluses were being used by founding beverage industry members (Coca-Cola, Lion) to offset their own scheme contribution costs, 'effectively shifting value from Queenslanders to themselves.'

QLD Parliamentary Inquiry Report, p. 123–131; ABC News, 16 October 2025

Structural Conflicts of Interest: Beverage Industry Controls the Scheme It Should Be Motivated to Avoid

The committee found a fundamental structural conflict: beverage manufacturers have a financial incentive to keep the scheme's costs low — which means keeping container recovery rates lower. COEX's board was member-dominated by the very beverage companies who benefit from a lower recovery rate. The committee found 'fundamental conflicts of interest for beverage manufacturers' in setting the scheme price and in meeting the recovery rate target.

QLD Parliamentary Inquiry Report, Chapter 3 — Governance Practices, pp. 76–87

No Open Tender for Scheme Coordinator — 'Fused Model' Without Precedent

COEX was appointed as Queensland's sole scheme coordinator without a public tender process. The committee found Queensland adopted a novel 'fused' model — combining coordinator and network operator functions in one entity — that had no precedent in any other Australian jurisdiction. Greater probity at appointment, including waste and recycling expertise on the board, 'may have prevented many of the problems now evident.'

QLD Parliamentary Inquiry Report, Chapter 2 — Governance Framework, pp. 37–59

Bullying, Harassment & Intimidation: 10 Matters Referred to the CCC

The committee received nearly 30 confidential submissions from witnesses who feared reprisal. It heard evidence of bullying, harassment and intimidation by COEX staff across multiple refund point operator sites. Allegations of conflicts of interest, unfair contracts, and misleading conduct were also received. 10 matters were referred to the Crime and Corruption Commission (CCC) for consideration. COEX confirmed it received the referrals.

QLD Parliamentary Inquiry Report, Chair's Foreword; ABC News, 16 October 2025

"Out-of-Home" Consumption Identified as the Critical Unaddressed Gap

The inquiry specifically identified capturing 'out-of-home consumption' as a primary mechanism for improving recovery rates — commercial venues, hospitality, events, stadiums, and workplaces. These are exactly the contexts where the 10c refund alone has zero reach, and where a gamified, prize-based behavioural engagement model — like the 10c Recycling Games — operates directly.

QLD Parliamentary Inquiry Report, Chapter 5.1.2 — Capturing out-of-home consumption, p. 201

What the Inquiry Identified — Areas Beyond Legislative Solutions

The Inquiry Identified

  • ✕Recovery rate stuck at 67% — 18% below the legislated target
  • ✕"Out-of-home" consumption (events, hospitality, workplaces) almost entirely uncaptured
  • ✕The 10c refund alone is insufficient to drive the remaining 33% of non-returners
  • ✕No credible mechanism exists to enforce the 85% target
  • ✕Governance failures mean scheme surpluses are not being reinvested in performance improvement
  • ✕Corporate actors (venues, employers) not sufficiently incentivised to participate

What 21 Recommendations Did NOT Include

  • →No recommendation for gamification or prize-based participation incentives
  • →No recommendation for community competition between suburbs, schools or workplaces
  • →No recommendation for a structured charitable giving layer to drive repeat behaviour
  • →No recommendation for a national cross-scheme engagement campaign
  • →No recommendation leveraging behavioural economics or social proof mechanisms
  • →The QLD Government explicitly rejected the one financial lever raised (refund increase)

The space between what the inquiry identified and what legislative recommendations can address represents an opportunity for complementary approaches like The 10c Recycling Games. It is not a replacement for good governance — it is a behavioural layer that operates alongside the existing scheme framework.

"Let us be clear: it is everyday Queenslanders — mums, dads, kids, and grandparents — who fund this scheme. They pay for its administration, logistics, and operations through the increased cost built into every beverage they buy."

— Rob Molhoek MP, Committee Chair, QLD Parliamentary Inquiry Report, October 2025

7 of 8 schemes are below target.
The solution is behavioural.

Every audit tells the same story: infrastructure built, awareness raised, return rate plateaued. The 10c refund alone isn't enough. The Recycling Games is the missing piece.

The 10c Recycling Games
Return for a Cause

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